NFL Betting More Art and Luck than Science for Punters

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Punters looking for an insight into the upcoming group of NFL matches might prefer strict head-to-head betting, as the point differential lines offer nothing encouraging.

Of course, the bookies have a clear edge when it comes to the lines, as the point spreads are always some unusual number, such as the 11 point favourtism currently in effect for the Game between the Denver Broncos and the New York Giants.

The Giants are winless this season and the players are dropping out to the casualty ward. Odell Beckham is done for the season and it could reasonably be argued that he was about the only reason to care about the Giants this year.

A NFL touchdown, followed by a converted point after is worth seven points. A field goal is worth three points, so it quickly becomes obvious that those who back the Broncos to cover the spread will need either a two-touchdown differential or one touchdown and two field goals.

Trying to pick a winner to cover or a loser to be inside the spread gets even weirder when you look at some of the other games and see spread that are quoted in half points, such as what appears to be one of the best games of the week, the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Kansas City Chiefs, were the Steelers are 4.5 point underdogs against the undefeated Chiefs. Head-to-head, that market quotes the Chiefs at $1.44 and the Steelers at $2.88.

Most of the domestic books offer something in the neighborhood of 30 markets for a NFL game, in some cases that rises to above 50, but some of the prop bets, such as whether the total point by both teams will be an odd or even number, are almost the equivalent of setting fire to paper money.